Nate Silver

Nate Silver is an American statistician, writer, political analyst, sports gambler, and poker player known for applying statistical methods to baseball and election forecasting.

Nate Silver (born Nathaniel Read Silver on January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer, political analyst, sports gambler, and poker player. He is known for applying statistical methods to baseball and election forecasting and for founding the data journalism site FiveThirtyEight. After leaving FiveThirtyEight in 2023, he began publishing the newsletter Silver Bulletin.

Early life and education

Nathaniel Read Silver was born on January 13, 1978, in East Lansing, Michigan. He is an American statistician and writer.

Career in sports statistics

Silver first gained wide recognition for his baseball forecasting work, including the development of PECOTA, a player projection system.

FiveThirtyEight and election forecasting

Silver founded FiveThirtyEight, a data-driven news and analysis site focused on politics, sports, and science. He became widely known for his statistical election forecasting, particularly after the 2008 U.S. presidential election. Silver served as FiveThirtyEight’s editor-in-chief until 2023 and was also a special correspondent for ABC News until May 2023.

Writing and public commentary

Silver is the author of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t, a book about prediction and data analysis.

Later work

After leaving FiveThirtyEight in 2023, Silver began publishing the newsletter Silver Bulletin. He has also served as an advisor to Polymarket, a prediction market platform.